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Match Group, Inc. (MTCH)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue of $863.7M was flat year-over-year and above both guidance and Street revenue expectations; Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) of $289.9M beat guidance and Street expectations when excluding $14M legal settlement and $18M restructuring costs, but came in below guidance on a reported basis .
  • Primary EPS missed the S&P Global consensus, reflecting the unanticipated legal settlement charge; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.49 vs. $0.48 a year ago and $0.44 in Q1 .
  • Hinge remained the growth engine (+25% direct revenue YoY; MAU +~20% in 1H; AI-driven recommendation algorithm), while Tinder revenue declined 4% YoY amid product reset; Match reinvests ~$50M in 2H to accelerate product and marketing .
  • Q3 2025 guidance implies 2–3% YoY revenue growth and ~36% AOI margin, with AOI down ~3% YoY on higher marketing; FY 2025 FCF guidance raised to $1.06–$1.09B; SBC lowered; capex raised .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Hinge momentum: Direct revenue +25% YoY (to $168M), payers +18% YoY (1.7M), RPP +6% ($31.96); AI recommendation boosted matches/contact exchanges by ~15% .
  • Revenue/AOI beat ex-charges: Total revenue and AOI exceeded guidance and Street expectations when excluding a $14M legal settlement and $18M restructuring costs .
  • Product velocity and trust & safety: Tinder launched Double Date globally, expanded Face Check, and improved bot detection; management emphasized renewed urgency and outcome-focused roadmap .

What Went Wrong

  • Tinder softness: Direct revenue down 4% YoY (to $461M); payers down 7% YoY (9.0M), with Gen Z à la carte pressure persisting; GAAP OI/AOI impacted by restructuring and legal charges .
  • Consolidated payer decline and margin compression: Payers -5% YoY (14,093k); AOI margin 34% vs. 35% prior year; OI margin 22% vs. 24% .
  • E&E and MG Asia mixed: E&E AOI margin fell to 11%; MG Asia revenue -6% YoY (RPP -12% YoY) despite payer growth; brand exits and FX pressures weighed .

Financial Results

Headline Financials (oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$864.1 $831.2 $863.7
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.48 $0.44 $0.49
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$204.5 $172.6 $193.9
Operating Income Margin (%)24% 21% 22%
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)$306.4 $275.2 $289.9
AOI Margin (%)35% 33% 34%
Payers (thousands)14,841 14,198 14,093
RPP ($)$19.05 $19.07 $20.00

Q2 2025 vs. Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$854.1*$863.7
Primary EPS ($)$0.774*$0.711*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$299.1*$236.8*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Revenue, AOI Margin; oldest → newest)

SegmentQ1 2025 Revenue ($M)Q1 2025 AOI Margin (%)Q2 2025 Revenue ($M)Q2 2025 AOI Margin (%)
Tinder$463.4 49% $476.7 52%
Hinge$152.2 28% $167.5 32%
E&E$152.4 19% $151.3 11%
MG Asia$63.8 30% $69.2 23%

KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Consolidated Payers (thousands)14,841 14,198 14,093
Consolidated RPP ($)$19.05 $19.07 $20.00
Segment KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025
Tinder Payers (millions)9.1 9.0
Tinder RPP ($)$16.38 $17.14
Hinge Payers (millions)1.7 1.7
Hinge RPP ($)$29.90 $31.96
E&E Payers (millions)2.4 2.3
E&E RPP ($)$20.76 $21.34
MG Asia Payers (millions)1.0 1.1
MG Asia RPP ($)$21.23 $21.53

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue ($M)Q2 2025$850–$860 $863.7 actual Beat
Adjusted Operating Income ($M)Q2 2025$295–$300 $289.9 actual Slight miss reported; beat ex-legal ($14M) and restructuring ($18M)
Total Revenue ($M)Q3 2025—$910–$920 New; up 2–3% YoY
Adjusted Operating Income ($M)Q3 2025—$330–$335 New; down ~3% YoY on higher marketing
AOI Margin (%)FY 2025≥36.5% target 36.5% excl. $25M restructuring and $14M legal; ~35.4% as-reported Maintained (definition change to Adjusted EBITDA next quarter)
Free Cash Flow ($B)FY 2025$1.00–$1.03 $1.06–$1.09 Raised
SBC Expense ($M)FY 2025$280–$290 $260–$270 Lowered
Capex ($M)FY 2025$45–$55 $55–$65 Raised
Dividend ($/share)Q3/Q4 2025$0.19 (declared) $0.19 (declared) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (prior two quarters)Q1 2025Q2 2025Trend
AI/technology in productHinge tests AI recommendation; Tinder plans AI-curated matches AI-enabled discovery at Tinder; Hinge AI recos driving +15% matches/contact exchanges Expanded AI use: Tinder interactive matching pilots; Hinge AI momentum continues Strengthening
Trust & SafetyFace photos/biometrics; reductions in bad actor interactions Testing features; >15% reduction in bad actor reports Face Check expansion; bot detection improvements; marketing trust gains Improving
Alternative payments (IAP savings)Mentioned portfolio leverage Testing across brands ~30% shift to web; >10% net revenue uplift; ~$65M AOI opportunity in 2026 Positive optionality
Macro/à la carte (ALC)FX headwinds; category resilience Noted ALC pressure at Tinder younger users ALC pressure persists but stable; macro broadly improved vs. prior quarter Stabilizing
Regional trendsHinge #1/#2 in WE; MG Asia mixed Hinge strong downloads; Pairs stable Hinge MAU +~20% 1H; Europe MAU +60%; MG Asia payers +6% YoY Mixed to improving
Regulatory/legalGoogle escrow prior impact —$14M FTC settlement charge; Canada DST rescind potential AOI benefit One-offs; potential upside
Reporting metrics——AOI to be renamed Adjusted EBITDA; MAU definition change next quarter Alignment with peers

Management Commentary

  • “With meaningful product progress at Tinder, strong momentum at Hinge, and a portfolio of distinct brands aligned around user needs, we’re building a product-first company positioned for long-term success.” — CEO Spencer Rascoff .
  • “In Q2… OI margin of 22% and AOI margin of 34%. Excluding… $18M restructuring and $14M legal settlement… OI increased 10% YoY… AOI increased 5% YoY.” — CFO Steven Bailey .
  • “We launched Double Date globally… strong early traction with 92% of Double Date users under 30.” — CEO Spencer Rascoff .
  • “We’re seeing more than a 30% shift in transactions from IAP to the web… more than a 10% increase in net revenue… at least $65M AOI savings opportunity in 2026.” — CFO Steven Bailey .

Q&A Highlights

  • Gen Z engagement and product-market fit: Double Date adoption; upcoming college features; interactive matching resonating under age 30; improving funnel metrics (regs, MAU, chats, contact exchange) though still down YoY .
  • Alternative payments: Portfolio-driven testing; ~30% web shift; >10% net revenue uplift; 2026 AOI savings potential ~$65M; Hinge testing slated in late Q3 .
  • Marketing reinvestment: ~$50M 2H allocation split roughly one-third product tests, one-third marketing for Tinder/Hinge launches, one-third geographic expansion/new bets .
  • ALC trends: Ongoing pressure among younger Tinder users, but macro concerns eased vs. prior quarter; merchandising/monetization tests underway .
  • Pricing and monetization: No near-term price hikes at Tinder; prioritizing user outcomes over short-term revenue (recommendation engine tuning) .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025: Revenue beat consensus ($863.7M vs. $854.1M*); Primary EPS missed ($0.711* vs. $0.774*). GAAP diluted EPS was $0.49 .
  • Q3 2025: Guidance revenue midpoint (~$915M) is in line with consensus ($914.8M*); AOI guidance $330–$335M aligns with EBITDA consensus ($333.2M*) given AOI≈Adjusted EBITDA going forward .
  • FY 2025: Company revenue guidance $3.375–$3.500B is close to Street ($3.4807B*); FCF guidance raised to $1.06–$1.09B .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Hinge is executing and remains the structural growth driver; Tinder’s product reset shows early engagement improvements but revenue recovery will lag as user outcomes are prioritized over near-term monetization .
  • Q2 revenue and AOI were stronger than expected ex-charges; reported AOI miss was driven by unforeseen legal settlement and restructuring, not underlying operations — a constructive signal for margin durability .
  • Q3 guide implies modest topline growth and temporarily lower AOI on reinvestment — expect near-term volatility but improved medium-term trajectory as product launches and alternative payments scale .
  • Alternative payments testing is tangible; if scaled company-wide, AOI could see ~$65M uplift in 2026 — a clear catalyst for margin and FCF upside .
  • FY 2025 FCF raised, SBC lowered, capex lifted — capital return remains robust with buybacks and dividend, supported by >$1B FCF guide .
  • Watch E&E margin recovery and MG Asia mix (Azar growth vs. RPP pressure); consolidation/migrations should support 2026 efficiencies .
  • Near-term trading: stock likely sensitive to Tinder engagement metrics, Hinge growth cadence, and any incremental proof-points on alt payments and trust & safety marketing; medium-term thesis tied to successful Revitalize→Resurgence phases and AOI/FCF compounding .